Food & beverages: Shortage of nitrogen-based fertilizers from Russia
While the inflationary costs for food & beverage are unclear, rises in the cost of food is equal to that of the GFC in 2008. It is estimated that 12% of the worlds calories come from Russia and Ukraine (the worlds 5th largest exporter of wheat). The immediate impact of the Russia invasion of Ukraine is that the world will experience a 10-50% shortage of major grain products (Corn, Rape seed, barley, what and sunflower oil). Specific countries and regions within the Middle East and Africa are especially suffering as many of these countries rely up to 100% on imports from Russia and Ukraine. Best case, global food markets can expect an impact of 6-9 months before rectifying steady food and beverage supplies. Even with the utility of sanctions, inflation will not return to normality for 2-3 years.